![]() The tasks essential for governing climate- engineering experiments are well within the panels’ expertise. Over the past three decades, the panels have built up enough trust for the ratifying countries to agree unanimously, several times, to add new controlled substances, or to accelerate the phasing out of a substance. Most often, that resolution was guided by a trio of assessment panels - standing committees of technical experts who weigh scientific evidence, forecast impacts, make recommendations, and guide negotiations. I learned to watch carefully for signs of new objections or obstruction, and to proactively resolve uncertainties to the satisfaction of the parties to the proto- col (the 197 signatory countries and nations). “In my forty years engaged in ozone protection, there were times when commercial concerns or fears of adverse environmental impacts almost derailed the work. Scientists do not yet know what the adverse consequences of climate engineering could be, but they can agree that those of runaway climate change would be catastrophic and possibly irre- versible. The US Clean Air Act of 1977 similarly took the stance that ‘no conclu- sive proof … but a reasonable expecta- tion’ of harmful effects is sufficient to justi- fy action. “The Montreal Protocol applied the ‘precautionary principle’ to justify action before full scientific and technical consensus had been reached - and it was not alone. There was also concern that technologies replacing CFCs would be less energy efficient and would use greenhouse gases, and thus contribute to climate change. People feared that crucial areas such as medi- cine, fire protection, aerospace, and elec- tronics, would suffer if these chemicals were banned. The ozone hole, unanticipated by scientists at the time, was reported in 1985, but even when the protocol was signed in 1987, CFCs had not been definitively linked to the deple- tion of ozone in the atmosphere. In the 1970s, chemists and atmospheric scientists warned that industrial chemicals such as chlorofluoro- carbons (CFCs) were likely to be endan- gering the ozone layer and acting as pow- erful greenhouse gases. Scientific investigations estimate recovery by mid-century. ![]()
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